POSITIONING EXTREME
HIGH attentionNasdaq 100 positioning is at a one-year extreme
Large speculators are net long 58,123 contracts and sit at the 100th percentile of the past year. Extreme means crowded, not automatically bullish or bearish.
Markets
Start with the few moves that are actually unusual. The rest of the page is the audit trail: valuation, carry, positioning, rotation, on-chain and macro.
Today in 20 seconds
Ranked from the same evidence shown below. Extremes are observations, not entry signals.
POSITIONING EXTREME
HIGH attentionLarge speculators are net long 58,123 contracts and sit at the 100th percentile of the past year. Extreme means crowded, not automatically bullish or bearish.
UNUSUAL FUNDING
HIGH attentionFunding is far from its own recent norm. That flags unusual positioning pressure, but it does not tell you direction by itself.
LEVERAGE BUILD
HIGH attentionOpen interest rose +48% while price rose +64%. Leverage is being added into strength, increasing liquidation sensitivity if momentum reverses.
ROTATION
HIGH attentionThe sector moved materially in the five-day relative-strength table, with 100% of members rising. Treat it as a breadth/rotation change, not a standalone trade signal.
What not to overreact to
Cross-asset leadership is mostly steady. Pay attention to the specific exceptions instead of treating every price move as a new macro regime.
Why it matters now
Market move: NOTHING HAS BROKEN YET. Differentiated research watch: Does the current very-strong El Niño forecast create a crop-specific market edge? No causal link between the tape headline and this research case is asserted until its recognition trigger is met.
Spot $83,240 · on-chain data as of 2026-10-12
the average on-chain cost basis of all coins — price sits 54% above it
recent buyers are in profit on average
market value is 1.54× what holders collectively paid
long-term versus short-term holders — who is sitting on gains and who is underwater
share of all coins worth more than their last on-chain move
bitcoin’s share of total crypto value — rising dominance means alts are bleeding against BTC
Spot-ETF flows: $589M out over 7 days, $2.0B in over 30 days.
Cross-checked daily against an independent vendor (CoinMetrics): today's MVRV agrees to within 1.65%.
We publish levels, never verdicts. On our own long-history tests, the popular readings of these metrics — "euphoria means sell", "deep value means buy" — failed against matched baselines. The number is a fact; the folklore is not.
perp longs pay shorts — leverage is paying to be long
perp longs pay shorts — leverage is paying to be long
puts price richer than calls — downside protection is bid
puts price richer than calls — downside protection is bid
Funding and basis are market prices — what leverage costs, not what a strategy earns. Strategies that harvest them sit in forward testing and are deliberately not shown here.
Liquidity flowing INTO Energy (+0.86, 67% members positive), OUT OF Bonds/Credit (-0.83); spread 1.69. Biggest 5d rotation: Energy +1 ranks
| # | Asset class | 5-day move |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy | ▲ 1 rank |
| 2 | US Dollar | ▼ 1 rank |
| 3 | Crypto | steady |
| 4 | Agriculture | ▲ 1 rank |
| 5 | US Equities | ▼ 1 rank |
| 6 | Intl Equities | steady |
Relative strength across the eight major asset classes, ranked. The 5-day move is the rotation itself — which classes money is entering and leaving this week.
Every Friday the CFTC publishes what large speculators actually hold in futures. The percentile is the part worth reading: it says how stretched today's position is against the past year of the same contract.
| Contract | Speculators | vs past year |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 | net long 58,123 contracts | 100th percentile |
| Australian dollar | net short 98,588 contracts | 2nd percentile |
| Euro | net short 99,332 contracts | 2nd percentile |
| Swiss franc | net short 23,740 contracts | 96th percentile |
| British pound | net short 97,611 contracts | 6th percentile |
| Japanese yen | net long 62,325 contracts | 92nd percentile |
Week ending 2026-10-06. A 5th-percentile reading means speculators have been more bearish this contract in only 5% of the past year's weeks — crowded, not a signal. Extremes are shown first.
| Market | Open interest | OI 7d |
|---|---|---|
| STX | $17M | +79% |
| TIA | $20M | +65% |
| STRK | $30M | +48% |
| QNT | $18M | -45% |
| SKY | $8M | -37% |
| ZEC | $164M | -37% |
The 69 perpetual markets we track with meaningful open interest, sorted by the biggest weekly change in leverage. Open interest rising while price falls means positions are being added into weakness — the reverse means longs are unwinding. Funding is shown as how far it sits from its own recent normal; the actual rate is in the carry section above, measured on a trailing window.
| # | Sector | 5-day move |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Energy | ▲ 2 |
| 2 | Consumer Staples | ▲ 6 |
| 3 | Utilities | ▲ 4 |
| 4 | Health Care | ▲ 6 |
| 5 | Technology | ▼ 4 |
| 6 | Innovation/Growth | ▼ 4 |
| Chain | DEX volume 24h | vs last week |
|---|---|---|
| Ethereum | $1.2B | +15% |
| Hyperliquid L1 | $335M | +0% |
| Tron | $88M | -1% |
| Arbitrum | $168M | -4% |
| Aptos | $5M | -12% |
| Solana | $2.2B | -13% |
Trading volume moves before allocated capital does — a chain whose volume is surging while value locked is flat is getting attention, not yet commitment.
10y real yield 2.87% — 100th percentile since 2003 (inflation breakevens 2.33%)
Yield curve (10y−2y) +0.44% (+0.08 over ~3 months)
High-yield spreads 3.15% — 59th percentile of the last three years
Net Fed liquidity $5,867B — +15B over 4 weeks
US money supply (M2) +5.7% year-over-year
Fed broad dollar index 121.4 — 90th percentile since 2006, +2.4% over a month
Equity put/call 0.62 (total 0.91)
Altcoin breadth — 8 of 11 majors above their 50-day average
Crypto Fear & Greed 57 — Greed (21st straight day)
33 datasets feed this site · 31 updating on schedule right now · 1 running behind schedule · 1 not currently collected.
Weekly futures positioning for large speculators across 10 contracts — currencies, gold, bitcoin, Nasdaq. Released every Friday, history back to 1998.
CFTC (US government) · weekly
Open interest, funding rate and 7-day changes across 87 crypto perpetual markets.
Bybit · daily · licensed feed — we publish our read, not a copy
Funding rates compared across exchanges, so a single venue's quirk cannot masquerade as a market-wide signal.
multiple exchanges · daily · licensed feed — we publish our read, not a copy
Daily short-sale volume by ticker as reported to FINRA — how much of the day's tape was short.
FINRA (public file) · daily
Trades disclosed by members of the US Congress under the STOCK Act.
public disclosure filings · daily
Which asset classes money is rotating into and out of, and the order that rotation tends to follow.
our computation · daily
Dealer gamma positioning by strike — where option hedging tends to dampen or amplify moves.
Deribit / options chains · daily · licensed feed — we publish our read, not a copy
Deribit's implied-volatility index for BTC and ETH, the crypto equivalent of the VIX.
Deribit · daily · licensed feed — we publish our read, not a copy
25-delta risk reversal, butterfly and at-the-money implied vol per tenor — whether puts or calls are richer.
Deribit · daily · licensed feed — we publish our read, not a copy
CBOE put/call volume ratio — a crude but long-running positioning gauge.
CBOE · daily
The classic recession gauge, straight from the Federal Reserve's own database.
FRED (US government) · daily
Inflation-protected 10-year yield — the real cost of money, and gold's most reliable macro counterweight.
FRED · daily
What lenders charge risky borrowers over Treasuries — credit stress usually shows here first.
FRED / ICE · daily
Broad money supply, year on year.
FRED · monthly
Total assets held by the Federal Reserve — the raw input to net liquidity.
FRED · weekly
Cash parked overnight at the Fed; combined with the balance sheet and the Treasury account it gives net liquidity.
FRED · daily
The Fed's trade-weighted dollar — a more honest dollar gauge than DXY, which is mostly the euro.
FRED · daily
Scheduled releases with impact ratings and the currency each one moves.
public calendars · daily
Exact historical release timestamps for CPI, payrolls, PCE and FOMC — the clock our event studies are measured against.
FRED release API · monthly
98 fields a day: realized price, MVRV, unrealized profit by holder cohort, exchange reserves, ETF flows, miner and long-term-holder behaviour.
on-chain vendor, cross-checked against CoinMetrics · daily · licensed feed — we publish our read, not a copy
DEX volume and total value locked per chain, plus which chains are growing fastest.
DefiLlama / GeckoTerminal · daily
Bitcoin's share of total crypto value, and how much of the market sits in stablecoins.
public market data · daily
The widely-quoted sentiment gauge, stored daily so we can test whether it has ever predicted anything.
alternative.me · daily
Coins moving on and off exchanges, computed directly on-chain rather than bought from a vendor.
on-chain (Etherscan / Bitquery) · daily · licensed feed — we publish our read, not a copy
Relative strength across 8 asset classes and 13 US sectors, with 5-day rotation.
our computation · daily
CNN's composite equity sentiment index.
CNN · daily
Aggregate sentiment of world news coverage, from an open academic dataset.
GDELT (open data) · daily
What real money says about rate cuts, recession and crypto — priced, not surveyed.
Polymarket · daily
Form 4 buys and sells by company officers and directors.
SEC filings · daily
Win rates with confidence intervals, hold times and execution quality for every book we run.
our journals · daily
Every probability forecast we issue, graded automatically when its horizon closes.
our engines · daily
Every price level this site has published, with what became of it.
this site · daily
Frozen conclusions from strategies we tested — including, mostly, the ones that failed.
our research · daily
Freshness is checked against each file as this page loads, not against the schedule that was meant to run — we have had a feed rewritten daily whose contents were a month old.