Currencies, every cross.

All eight majors scored, all 28 crosses read off those scores, and what speculators actually hold.

Where things stand

updated 2h ago

Currency strength ranks CHF 85, CAD 80, AUD 80 at the top and USD 68, JPY 15 at the bottom, scored 0-100 across 8 majors.

USDJPY has one order resting at 146.173; a direction is already chosen there.

GBPAUD has one order resting at 1.97766; a direction is already chosen there.

We don't publish a directional call on any pair from this ranking alone — it scores currencies, it does not time entries.

What this is

Currencies are relative by construction — one is only strong against another — so we score all eight and then read every one of the 28 crosses off those scores. The breakdown behind each score is shown in full: trend, relative strength, rate differential, surprise momentum and event risk. Beside it sits what large speculators actually hold in the futures market, as a percentile of the past year.

Strongest right now: CHF. Weakest: JPY. 14 of 28 crosses have a live price feed; the rest are scored but not quotable, and say so.

The eight majors, scored

CHF#1 of 885.0
Model's own regime wordstrong bullish
Structural trend (6 months)40.0
Relative strength (1–3 months)30.0
Interest-rate differential7.5
Economic surprise momentum5.0
Event risk2.5
By horizon — spot 100 · 1M 100 · 3M 100 · 6M 100
CAD#2 of 880.2
Model's own regime wordstrong bullish
Structural trend (6 months)37.2
Relative strength (1–3 months)27.9
Interest-rate differential7.5
Economic surprise momentum5.0
Event risk2.5
By horizon — spot 93 · 1M 93 · 3M 93 · 6M 93
AUD#3 of 880.0
Model's own regime wordstrong bullish
Structural trend (6 months)37.1
Relative strength (1–3 months)27.8
Interest-rate differential7.5
Economic surprise momentum5.0
Event risk2.5
By horizon — spot 93 · 1M 93 · 3M 93 · 6M 93
NZD#4 of 878.3
Model's own regime wordstrong bullish
Structural trend (6 months)36.2
Relative strength (1–3 months)27.1
Interest-rate differential7.5
Economic surprise momentum5.0
Event risk2.5
By horizon — spot 90 · 1M 90 · 3M 90 · 6M 90
GBP#5 of 877.8
Model's own regime wordstrong bullish
Structural trend (6 months)35.9
Relative strength (1–3 months)26.9
Interest-rate differential7.5
Economic surprise momentum5.0
Event risk2.5
By horizon — spot 90 · 1M 90 · 3M 90 · 6M 90
EUR#6 of 875.9
Model's own regime wordstrong bullish
Structural trend (6 months)34.8
Relative strength (1–3 months)26.1
Interest-rate differential7.5
Economic surprise momentum5.0
Event risk2.5
By horizon — spot 87 · 1M 87 · 3M 87 · 6M 87
USD#7 of 868.2
Model's own regime wordbullish
Structural trend (6 months)30.0
Relative strength (1–3 months)22.5
Interest-rate differential8.2
Economic surprise momentum5.0
Event risk2.5
By horizon — spot 75 · 1M 75 · 3M 75 · 6M 75
JPY#8 of 815.0
Model's own regime wordstrong bearish
Structural trend (6 months)0.0
Relative strength (1–3 months)0.0
Interest-rate differential7.5
Economic surprise momentum5.0
Event risk2.5
By horizon — spot 0 · 1M 0 · 3M 0 · 6M 0

Open any currency for the full breakdown behind its score — trend, relative strength, rate differential, surprise momentum and event risk, plus the score at each horizon. We show the components because a single composite number is impossible to argue with, and an unarguable number is not evidence.

All 28 crosses

CrossPriceDivergence
CHF/JPY195.82670.0
CAD/JPY114.4965.2
AUD/JPY112.60365.0
NZD/JPY93.3663.3
GBP/JPY215.09762.8
EUR/JPY183.9060160.9
USD/JPY159.41153.2
AUD/USD0.7067611.8
NZD/USD0.5859610.1
GBP/USD1.349519.6
Show all 28
EUR/USD1.154077.7
AUD/NZDno price feed1.7
AUD/CADno price feed-0.2
GBP/NZDno price feed-0.5
EUR/GBP0.85491-1.9
NZD/CADno price feed-1.9
GBP/AUDno price feed-2.2
EUR/NZDno price feed-2.4
GBP/CADno price feed-2.4
EUR/AUDno price feed-4.1
EUR/CADno price feed-4.3
CAD/CHFno price feed-4.8
AUD/CHFno price feed-5.0
NZD/CHFno price feed-6.7
GBP/CHFno price feed-7.2
EUR/CHFno price feed-9.1
USD/CAD1.39229-12.0
USD/CHF0.81391-16.8

Sorted by divergence — the gap between the two currencies' scores. A wide gap says the pair is a cleaner expression of one view than a narrow one; it does not say the view is right, and none of these is a signal. Our graded signals live on the record.

What speculators actually hold

Swiss francnet short 32,822 contracts 65th pct
New Zealand dollarnet short 41,203 contracts 46th pct
Australian dollarnet short 33,190 contracts 40th pct
British poundnet short 57,814 contracts 40th pct
Japanese yennet short 45,473 contracts 40th pct
Euronet short 58,091 contracts 4th pct
Canadian dollarnet short 179,095 contracts 2nd pct

The percentile is the part worth reading: it says how stretched today's positioning is against the past year of the same contract, which the raw contract count cannot. Week ending 2026-08-04; the CFTC publishes every Friday with a three-day lag.

We tested this
We tested speculator positioning as a forward signal. It looked significant on the full sample and collapsed out-of-sample once a scaling error was fixed — the strong number was made by the method, not the market.

Scores and positioning, not recommendations — and worth knowing: on our own long-history tests, currency direction has been the hardest thing on this site to forecast. Six independent conditioning families were tested and none survived. Cross-asset view · Our record. Educational information, not financial advice.
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