Bitcoin, the whole picture.

Every Bitcoin measurement we capture each day — not a selection of it.

Where things stand

updated 2h ago

Bitcoin is 846 days past the 2024-04-20 halving. The three previous cycles topped 525-546 days after theirs, so this one is about 300 days beyond that window — a comparison across three episodes, which is a pattern and not a rule.

Price sits below its 200-day mean (-8.98%) and 14.0% of the way up its 1-year range.

Capital inside crypto is at the Broad Alt Season stage: BTC dominance falling. >35% of top 100 outperforming BTC. Volume growing across mid-caps.

BTCUSD has both sides staged at 62192 and 66914; the first break is the trade.

We don't publish a cycle phase — the models that would name one have not cleared their gates; nor this flow model's next-rotation picks, which are still unproven.

What this is

Every measurement we capture for Bitcoin, in full — valuation, holder behaviour, institutional flows, derivatives and the macro backdrop, on one clock. Nothing here is a forecast: these are levels, and where a popular reading of them exists we have usually tested it and found it wanting.

73 measurements published · 30 fields withheld (row identity, the vendor's own forecasts, and its cycle-phase labels — see below) · on-chain data as of 2026-08-13

Price & cost basis

What the market pays now, against what holders actually paid. Every level below is on-chain fact, not opinion.

Spot pricemarket price at capture$62,902
Realized priceaverage on-chain cost basis of every coin$52,724
Short-term holder cost basisaverage paid by coins moved in the last 155 days$68,633
True market meancost basis weighted for genuinely active supply$75,233
Previous all-time highthe last cycle peak$124,711

Valuation ratios

The same question — cheap or expensive against history — asked eight different ways. We publish the levels; we do NOT publish the folklore readings, which we tested and found wanting.

MVRVmarket value over realized value: 1.0 means the average holder is flat1.193
MVRV Z-scoreMVRV in standard deviations — ours is computed on EXPANDING history, so it never peeks at the future the way published chart versions do0.3648
Net unrealized profit/lossshare of market value sitting in unrealized gain0.1684
Short-term holder MVRVbelow 1.0 means recent buyers are underwater0.9241
Long-term holder MVRVthe patient cohort's profit multiple1.311
Mayer multipleprice over its 200-day average0.9110
2-year MA ratioprice against the 2-year moving average0.7260
Pi-cycle ratiothe 111d/350d×2 pair that has marked prior cycle tops; 1.0 is the crossover0.4105
AHR999 indexa cost-of-accumulation index popular in Asia0.3432
Puell multipleminer revenue against its yearly average0.7564
AVIV ratioactive value against investor value0.8361
Reserve riskprice against the conviction of long-term holders0.0009

Profit, loss and cycle position

Who is in profit, who is under water, and where the cycle clock reads.

Supply in profitshare of all coins worth more than their last move0.5164
Short-term holder P&Lrecent buyers' unrealized position-0.0822
Long-term holder P&Lpatient holders' unrealized position0.2374
Fear & greedthe widely-quoted sentiment gauge30

Holder behaviour

Coins do not lie about how long they sit still. This is the movement side of the ledger.

Livelinesshow much dormant coin-time is being spent0.6345
Vaultednessthe mirror of liveliness — supply sitting still0.3655
Coin-days destroyedsupply-adjusted; spikes mean old coins moved0.3902
Hot capital shareshare of capital in fast-moving hands18.18%
Supply active in 1 yearcoins that moved at least once in the last year58.96%
Long-term holder supplycoins held beyond 155 days14,767,883 BTC
LTH supply, 30-day changeaccumulation or distribution by the patient cohort-183,664 BTC
LTH supply, 7-day changethe same, one week-5,201 BTC
LTH share in losslong-term holders currently under water38.00%
LTH spent-output ratioprofit multiple on coins the patient cohort actually sold; 1.0 is break-even0.9455
LTH loss sent to exchanges7-day average value of loss-making coins moved to exchanges$185.1M
…7-day changewhether that capitulation is accelerating−19.60%
Exchange reservescoins held on exchanges — the sell-side inventory3,337,443 BTC

Institutional flows

ETFs, corporate treasuries and funds — the demand that did not exist in prior cycles.

Spot-ETF flow, 1 daynet creations minus redemptions−$125.4M
Spot-ETF flow, 7 daysthe weekly net$160.4M
Spot-ETF flow, 30 daysthe monthly net$1.01B
Outflow streakconsecutive days of net outflow2
ETF volume vs peaktrading activity against its own record0.0640
GBTC share of flowthe legacy trust's share of the week's flow96.2%
MicroStrategy issuance windowunknown — dated treasury inputs are stale.
MicroStrategy premium readunavailable
MicroStrategy inputs datedthese fields lag the rest of the snapshot2026-07-26
7 fields unavailable todayCorporate treasuries · …30-day change · Fund holdings · MicroStrategy mNAV · MicroStrategy market cap · MicroStrategy bitcoin value · MicroStrategy STRC vs par — the vendor inputs behind these are stale; they return when the feed catches up.

Derivatives & positioning

What leverage costs and where options sit.

Perp funding, annualizedpoint-in-time rate annualized — a trailing average appears on the markets page and will differ10.95%
Implied volatility (DVOL)the crypto VIX34.5
Put/call ratiooption demand skew0.5599
Max painthe strike where most open options expire worthless$64,000
Bitcoin dominanceshare of total crypto value58.47%
Stablecoin supplydry powder sitting in dollar tokens$254.97B

Macro backdrop

Captured alongside the on-chain data so the two can be read on one clock.

Net Fed liquiditybalance sheet less reverse repo and the Treasury account, in trillions$5.796T
US money supply, y/y5.53%
10-year real yieldthe real cost of money2.42%
Dollar index99.9
VIXequity volatility14.6
High-yield spreadscredit stress2.71%
BTC/S&P correlation, 30dhow much bitcoin is trading as a risk asset right now0.4120

Independent cross-check

The same metrics recomputed from a SECOND vendor (CoinMetrics), published beside the first. Two sources agreeing is evidence; one source is a claim.

Price (CoinMetrics)$63,395
MVRV (CoinMetrics)1.203
NUPL (CoinMetrics)0.1690
Realized price (CoinMetrics)$52,678
MVRV percentile (CoinMetrics)causal, expanding-window percentile0.2020
CoinMetrics as of2026-08-13
Cross-check statusok
MVRV disagreementhow far the two vendors differ0.87%
NUPL disagreement0.38%
Realized-price disagreement−0.09%

What we do not publish, and why

This feed also carries the vendor’s own directional calls. We do not republish them, because we track how they score: 209 graded predictions, Brier 0.2820 against 0.2500 for a coin flip, predicting 60% confidence against a 44% realized hit rate. Every measurement above is published; their forecasts are not.

Levels, not advice. Where a popular reading of one of these metrics exists — “this means top”, “this means bottom” — we have generally tested it against a matched baseline and it did not survive; the number is a fact, the folklore is not. Cross-asset view · Our record. Educational information, not financial advice.
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