Rates, credit, liquidity and the release calendar — the plumbing every other page sits inside.
The macro read is bullish (score 5.79), with volatility at 14.63 and -22.06% over the week.
The 10-year splits into a 2.42% real yield and 2.26% of expected inflation. Over six months the real part moved +0.58 points and the inflation part -0.06 — which half is moving tells you whether the bond market is pricing growth or debasement.
We don't publish a rates forecast — these are today's market-implied levels, not a view.
Rates, credit and liquidity are the conditions every other page sits inside. None of this is a trade and none of it is a forecast — it is the state of the plumbing, with the series named so you can pull the same numbers from the source yourself. Where our own readings of it disagree, we say so rather than picking the tidier one.
Business-cycle model: SLOWDOWN · confidence 59%
Reading from: yield curve narrow, credit spread normal, vix complacent.
Macro regime score: BULLISH · 5.79
These two disagree today. One reads the direction of leading and coincident indicators; the other scores the level of a handful of macro conditions. A level can be comfortable while the direction is deteriorating, which is exactly what a turn looks like from the inside. We publish both because picking the tidier one is how a site starts telling you what you want to hear — and neither is a forecast.
These are the inputs as of the cycle model's last run (3h ago)— the live VIX in the volatility section below refreshes separately, so the two can differ slightly.
The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields. Below zero is the inversion that has preceded most US recessions — though with long and irregular lead times.
We tested this
Tested as a short-horizon input for choosing positions, it carried no forward information. We have NOT tested it as a long-horizon recession indicator, which is the claim it is famous for.
What lenders demand above Treasuries to hold junk-rated corporate debt. It widens when credit gets nervous, usually before equities notice.
We tested this
Tested alongside the curve as a short-horizon input and found lagging. Its reputation as an early warning is a longer-horizon claim we have not measured.
The 10-year yield after inflation, read off inflation-protected Treasuries. This is the number gold and long-duration assets actually respond to.
Not tested by us
We publish this level and have never tested whether it predicts anything. It is context, not a signal.
The inflation rate the bond market is pricing over ten years — the gap between nominal and inflation-protected yields.
Not tested by us
We publish this level and have never tested whether it predicts anything. It is context, not a signal.
The dollar against a broad basket of trading partners, weighted by actual trade. Broader than the DXY that gets quoted.
Not tested by us
We publish this level and have never tested whether it predicts anything. It is context, not a signal.
The size of the Fed balance sheet. Falling means quantitative tightening is still draining.
Not tested by us
We publish this level and have never tested whether it predicts anything. It is context, not a signal.
This series only goes up, so ranking its level would read near 100% forever and say nothing. The ranking above is of its year-on-year growth rate instead — as a percentage, so that a dollar change from a much smaller base decades ago still compares fairly with today.
Cash parked at the Fed overnight. It drained from trillions to near nothing over 2023-25; that buffer is now gone.
Not tested by us
We publish this level and have never tested whether it predicts anything. It is context, not a signal.
The Treasury's own cash balance at the Fed. Refilling it pulls liquidity out of the system; spending it down adds liquidity back.
Not tested by us
We publish this level and have never tested whether it predicts anything. It is context, not a signal.
Broad money — cash, deposits and near-cash. Monthly, and revised.
Not tested by us
We publish this level and have never tested whether it predicts anything. It is context, not a signal.
This series only goes up, so ranking its level would read near 100% forever and say nothing. The ranking above is of its year-on-year growth rate instead — as a percentage, so that a dollar change from a much smaller base decades ago still compares fairly with today.
Each number is placed against its own history, and each range states how far back that history goes — the yield curve is ranked against 50 years, the high-yield spread against three, and those are not the same claim. Every series is named by its official code so you can pull the identical numbers from the Federal Reserve yourself; this is public data and you should not have to take our word for any of it. Open a row for what it measures and, where we have tested it, what we found. Some series are weekly or monthly, so a “1m change” may span only a few observations.